KINGSTON, JAMAICA:--- As Hurricane Melissa bears down on Jamaica as a catastrophic Category 5 storm, many in the Caribbean are drawing chilling comparisons to Hurricane Irma, the historic 2017 hurricane that devastated several islands and parts of Florida. Though separated by eight years, both storms share striking similarities — and crucial differences — in their formation, power, and potential for destruction.
The Storms at a Glance
|
Feature |
Hurricane Irma (2017) |
Hurricane Melissa (2025) |
|
Category (Peak) |
Category 5 |
Category 5 |
|
Peak Winds |
180 mph (285 km/h) |
175 mph (282 km/h) |
|
Minimum Pressure |
914 mb |
~915 mb (as of NHC advisory) |
|
Landfall Areas |
Barbuda, St. Martin, British Virgin Islands, Cuba, Florida Keys |
Forecast landfall: Jamaica (Monday night/Tuesday) |
|
Duration as Cat 5 |
3 days — one of the longest on record |
1+ day so far; still ongoing |
|
Movement Speed |
12–15 mph |
3–5 mph (very slow) |
|
Primary Threats |
Widespread wind destruction across island chains; storm surge; infrastructure collapse |
Catastrophic flooding, storm surge, prolonged high winds due to slow movement |
|
Fatalities (estimated) |
134 (across Caribbean + U.S.) |
Not yet known (storm still active) |
|
Economic Damage |
~US $77 billion (global) |
TBD — projected multi-billion for Jamaica alone |
Power and Path: Irma Was Fast and Wide — Melissa Is Slow but Brutal
Hurricane Irma, which formed in late August 2017, was one of the most powerful and long-lasting Category 5 storms ever observed in the Atlantic Basin. It maintained winds above 180 mph for 37 hours straight, striking multiple islands in quick succession before moving toward Florida.
Melissa, by contrast, is smaller in geographic footprint but far slower-moving — a factor that makes it potentially more destructive in localized areas. The storm’s sluggish speed (just 3–5 mph) means it will dump immense amounts of rain over Jamaica for an extended period, increasing the likelihood of flooding and landslides.
“Irma was a sprint; Melissa is a siege,” said meteorologist Evan Thompson of the Meteorological Service of Jamaica. “With Melissa, the danger isn’t only in the winds — it’s in how long those winds and rains stay over us.”
Human Impact: Islands at the Heart of the Storm
Hurricane Irma left entire islands unrecognizable — Barbuda’s infrastructure was obliterated; 95 percent of buildings were damaged or destroyed. St. Martin and the British Virgin Islands also saw catastrophic losses.
Hurricane Melissa threatens to repeat that devastation on a single island: Jamaica. With its mountainous interior and dense coastal settlements, the island faces catastrophic flash flooding and storm surge reaching up to 13 feet (4 meters) on the south coast.
Where Irma’s destruction was widespread across multiple countries, Melissa’s impact could be concentrated but equally ruinous — possibly the worst single-island disaster in Jamaica’s modern history.
Preparedness: Lessons Learned — and Tested Again
The Caribbean region learned hard lessons from Irma and later from Hurricanes Maria (2017) and Dorian (2019). Many islands, including Jamaica, have since improved early warning systems, shelter capacity, and emergency communications.
Jamaica’s government has activated over 900 shelters, pre-positioned emergency supplies, and coordinated with regional partners and the U.S. for post-storm aid — measures that reflect the experience gained from Irma’s devastation.
Still, experts warn that Melissa’s combination of intensity and slow movement presents challenges that few Caribbean nations are truly equipped to face.
“Irma taught us about power,” said Richard Thompson, Director of Jamaica’s ODPEM. “Melissa is teaching us about persistence — a storm that won’t move on quickly can break even the best-prepared systems.”
Meteorological Context: Warmer Seas, Faster Growth
Both Irma and Melissa formed under conditions of exceptionally warm Caribbean and Atlantic waters — a pattern that scientists link to climate change.
- Irma’s formation was fueled by sea-surface temperatures of around 29–30 °C.
- Melissa is developing warm waters exceeding 30.5 °C, which has helped it intensify from tropical storm to Category 5 in less than 72 hours.
Meteorologists warn that such rapid intensification events are becoming more common, leaving less time for island nations to prepare.
Comparative Impact Potential
|
Impact Category |
Hurricane Irma (2017) |
Hurricane Melissa (2025) |
|
Wind Damage |
Total devastation on small islands (Barbuda, St. Martin) |
Extreme structural damage expected across southern Jamaica |
|
Flooding |
Moderate, fast-moving storm limited rainfall duration |
Catastrophic potential — heavy rain over several days |
|
Storm Surge |
10–15 ft in Caribbean, 8–10 ft in Florida Keys |
9–13 ft expected along Jamaica’s south coast |
|
Economic Fallout |
Multi-billion regional losses, tourism and housing sectors crushed |
Predicted to heavily damage agriculture, tourism, and energy infrastructure |
|
Duration of Impact |
Rapid — hit multiple islands in under 3 days |
Prolonged — Jamaica could endure hurricane conditions for up to 36 hours |
The Broader Picture: A New Era of Superstorms
The comparison between Melissa and Irma underscores a sobering trend: Atlantic hurricanes are becoming stronger, wetter, and more unpredictable. Warmer sea temperatures and favorable atmospheric conditions allow storms to intensify faster and sustain peak strength longer — increasing risks for Caribbean nations.
“If Irma was the warning, Melissa is the confirmation,” said Dr. Leslie Gordon, a climate researcher at the University of the West Indies. “These storms are evolving faster than our infrastructure and emergency systems.”
Conclusion
While Irma shattered records for size and duration, Melissa threatens to set a different kind of record — the strongest hurricane ever to make landfall directly on Jamaica. The island’s fate over the coming days will not only define this hurricane season but also serve as another stark reminder that the Caribbean stands at the frontline of climate-driven extremes.
For Jamaicans, Hurricane Melissa is more than a storm — it’s a test of resilience forged in the lessons of Irma eight years ago.
KINGSTON, JAMAICA:--- A rapidly intensifying storm, Hurricane Melissa, has become a devastating Category 5 hurricane and is bearing down on Jamaica with the potential to be one of the worst disasters in the country’s recorded history.